SpaceX’s first day of Nasdaq trading under SPCX closes the loop on an IPO priced at $135 per share,
raising $75 billion at a post-money valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. The float is thin, 4%
of total shares, or roughly 555.6 million Class A shares out of 13.7 billion total, which means
today’s price action will be driven more by institutional order flow than any broad retail bid. [Trading performance data, opening price, intraday range, volume, and close, is pending Wire
amendment. Do not publish this section until confirmed.]
The structural story behind the debut is cleaner than most IPOs. SpaceX isn’t asking public markets
to price a hope. It has contracted revenue. Google agreed to pay approximately $920 million per month from October
2026 through June 2029 for access to at least 110,000 GPUs at SpaceX data centers, roughly $30.36
billion over the life of the contract. That’s not a letter of intent. It’s a disclosed take-or-pay
structure in the S-1 filing
with the SEC. For investors evaluating AI infrastructure equity, this is the most important number
on the cap table: near-term revenue visibility backed by a counterparty with a balance sheet to match.
The catch is concentration. One customer, Google, accounts for a meaningful share of that visible
backlog. The S-1 also discloses compute arrangements with Anthropic and Cursor, but terms aren’t as
clearly delineated in the public record. The precise allocation of compute capacity between SpaceX’s
commercial data-center rentals and xAI’s Colossus cluster has not been publicly disclosed, which
means investors are making assumptions about how much of the infrastructure asset is genuinely
ring-fenced for third-party commercial use.
This is the third major AI infrastructure asset to approach or reach public markets in the same
quarter, following CoreWeave’s listing and Oracle’s record $638 billion RPO disclosure, suggesting
the market is actively trying to price what compute capacity is worth before OpenAI and Anthropic
reach their own public windows.
The roadshow dynamics were tracked here when the process kicked off June 8. How SPCX trades
today relative to its IPO price will function as a live referendum on those assumptions.
What to watch
the first week of trading volume will tell you more than the opening price. Low volume
at a premium suggests institutional buyers are holding; high volume with price softening suggests
early investor distribution. Watch also for any S-1 amendment or 8-K filed in the first 90 days that
clarifies the xAI/Colossus compute boundary, that disclosure, when it arrives, will reprice the
asset for anyone who bought the compute-landlord thesis at face value.
Verification
Partial XTB analysis, SpaceX S-1 (SEC), WSJ, no source pages fetched as of publication Trading performance data (open, range, volume, close) is pending Wire amendment, not included in this briefWhat to Watch
The real story is that SpaceX’s debut isn’t a technology bet. It’s a commercial real estate trade
with AI tenants. The quality of those tenants, their creditworthiness, their contract terms, and
their ability to absorb cost, is what this equity is actually worth. Google’s $920M/month commitment
answers part of that question. The xAI relationship raises it again.