The grid is being built for AI. The question is what it’s being built with.
New analysis from the Department of Energy and the American Action Forum (AAF), a market-oriented policy research organization, shows planned non-renewable energy capacity additions for the 2025-2026 period have increased 71%, per DOE and AAF data. Natural gas’s share of planned US grid additions rose to approximately 18.1%, up from 11.1% in 2024, per AAF figures. Renewable capacity additions, by contrast, grew at roughly 2% over the same period, per AAF analysis.
The cost differential is stark. Per AAF’s cost analysis, natural gas grid connection runs approximately $24 per kilowatt. Solar comes in at approximately $253 per kilowatt. AAF is a market-oriented policy advocacy organization, and its data selection may reflect its policy orientation, but the underlying direction of that cost gap aligns with documented interconnection queue challenges for utility-scale solar. The figures carry the advocacy source caveat, but the trend they describe is consistent with broader grid economics.
AI is the driver. DOE modeling projects data center electricity demand could reach up to 12% of total US electricity consumption by 2028, a projection, not a measurement, but one with significant infrastructure implications. The appetite for 24-hour, 365-day baseload power does not align naturally with intermittent renewable generation profiles. That mismatch is what the capacity addition data appears to reflect.
This is a follow-up to an energy demand narrative that the hub has been tracking through the spring. NextEra received federal approval for a 10GW gas build-out in April, and the infrastructure backlog analysis from May 3 documented how capital is routing toward physical constraints. The May 4 DOE/AAF report adds a specific, sourced quantification to a pattern already visible in project announcements.
The tension worth watching is between the grid’s actual build trajectory and the public commitments several major hyperscalers have made to 100% renewable energy operations. Planned capacity additions are not the same as actual energy sourcing, operators can and do use renewable energy certificates and power purchase agreements to meet commitment targets while drawing from a mixed grid. But if AI workload growth is outpacing renewable availability at the pace DOE projects, the gap between committed and delivered sustainability performance will widen.
What to watch: The House Subcommittee on AI power demand and permitting reform met in late April, with grid cost and ratepayer protection among the key topics. The legislative response to AI energy demand is now on the same timeline as the infrastructure build-out. Watch whether natural gas capacity additions translate into permitting reform proposals or whether they accelerate state-level carbon accounting challenges from environmental groups.
TJS synthesis: The 71% figure is a data point, not a verdict on ESG commitments. Planned capacity is not dispatched power. But when DOE projections and AAF capacity data align on the direction of the grid build, toward gas, at scale, for AI, operators with public net-zero timelines face a sourcing question that renewable certificates alone may not fully resolve. The gap between what companies promised and what the grid can deliver is narrowing as a measurable, reportable risk.