arXiv:2602.00906v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Large language models often hallucinate with high confidence on “random facts” that lack inferable patterns. We formalize the memorization of such facts as a membership testing problem, unifying the discrete error metrics of Bloom filters with the continuous log-loss of LLMs. By analyzing this problem in the regime where facts are sparse in the universe of plausible claims, we establish a rate-distortion theorem: the optimal memory efficiency is characterized by the minimum KL divergence between score distributions on facts and non-facts. This theoretical framework provides a distinctive explanation for hallucination: even with optimal training, perfect data, and a simplified “closed world” setting, the information-theoretically optimal strategy under limited capacity is not to abstain or forget, but to assign high confidence to some non-facts, resulting in hallucination. We validate this theory empirically on synthetic data, showing that hallucinations persist as a natural consequence of lossy compression. Read More
